Super Bowl Gambling Trends
Did y'all know that about half of American adults will bet on this year’s Super Bowl? I’m sure some of you will be included in that total. I’m sure that many of you OUTSIDE the U.S. will as well, because you’re able to do so a little bit more freely….I love sports and I love statistics and i've compiled a list of trends and ideas that I think are useful in some way. Not all of the things I’m going to say are necessarily all that meaningful, but I figure that any piece of info is at least worth having. Knowledge is power, right? Since so much money is at stake, might as well be thorough. Maybe you can incorporate some of these ideas and maybe you can mentally refute these ideas to come to a solid conclusion on who to bet on (if you’re still undecided in some way). And if you’re looking for info on how spreads work, see here. Okay, here we go…
The spread right now is Denver -2 or possibly Denver -2.5 depending where you look.
Denver is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games.
Denver is 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games away from home.
This will be Denver’s 30th straight game being favored. They are 25-4 straight up and 20-9 ATS in those last 29 games.
Seattle is 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games (one of those losses was an 8 point win over New Orleans when Seattle was favored by 9).
Seattle 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games away from home.
Seattle is 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games as an underdog away from home (those 2 losses ATS were by a combined total of 2 points).
Seattle is 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.
Denver is 10-10 on the road against Seattle in the last 20 games.
The NFC has won 4 of the last 6 Super Bowls and NFC teams have covered in 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls.
Underdogs have also won 4 of the last 6 Super Bowls and covered in 5 of those 6 games.
The favorite has won 70% of the previous 47 Super Bowls (33-14) outright.
Roughly 70% of the public bets have been on Denver.
According to Vegas Insider and The Herd (ESPN Radio) contributor, R.J. Bell, in the last 23 Super Bowls, Vegas has been on the right side of the game 21 times, while the public has been on the right side twice. (I’m not sure if he’s talking about just the game or prop best are included, but this is still valuable info because about 50% of the bets go on the game’s outcome and not prop bets).
Of the 15 games Denver has won this year, they have won by 7 points or more 14 times (The spread is under a touchdown).
Only 10% of the betting action has taken place, roughly 90% of the bets will come in on the weekend. The line is projected to fall down to about Denver -1 or Denver -1.5, so if you really like Seattle, you should prolly bet it now, while you get a better number. If you really like Denver, you should probably wait.
The Denver Broncos have scored the most points in NFL history and gained the most yards in NFL history.
The Seahawks are the 1st defense since the ‘85 Bears to lead the league in yards allowed, points allowed and turnovers.
Seattle is 4th in the league in rushing. That means the Seahawks are gonna line up, pound the ball with Marshawn Lynch and churn out 5-6 yards per rush, right? Well, while they are 4th in rushing, they are only 14th in rush yards per carry. Seattle’s run game isn’t necessarily that great (like, say, Philadelphia’s) they just run it more often than almost every other team.
Along those lines, Denver and Seattle’s Run Defenses are surprisingly on par with each other. They both allow the same amount of rush yards per game (101.6; tied for 7th in the league) and per carry (3.9; tied for 7th in the league). So Seattle may not be able to run the ball on Denver like people think they will.
Seattle had their bye week in Week 12. Since then, Seattle has allowed a measly 12 points per game! While they weren’t facing great offenses every week, New Orleans is the 4th best offense in the league and Seattle held them to 7 points the first time and 15 points the 2nd time.
Seattle D gives up 15.12 points per game on the road. 14.2 points per game at home. We always hear about how great Seattle’s homefield advantage is, but Seattle’s D brings it no matter where the game is being played
Over Russell Wilson’s last 6 games, he has a worse QBR than Rex Grossman did down the stretch of his Super Bowl run.
Denver has been held to 400 yards just 3 times all year. All 3 of those times, they were facing the San Diego Chargers.
How important will Richard Sherman be during the Super Bowl after becoming a household name? Well let’s see. Richard Sherman lines up on the left side of Seattle’s defense 98% of the time. With all of Peyton Manning’s weapons, he could possibly avoid him if he really wanted to. It would probably be in Manning’s best interest to stay away from Sherman because he forces the lowest QB rating when QBs attempt to throw at him of any cornerback in the league. Don’t be surprised if Manning throws on Byron Maxwell’s side early and often because Manning is no dummy and Byron Maxwell because as good as he appears to be, he is no Richard Sherman, and I don’t think he is as good as suspended CB Brandon Browner.
Having said that, let’s look at Denver’s game vs New England. While Pro Bowl cornerback Aqib Talib was on the field for the Patriots for the first quarter, Denver scored a total of 3 points. In the beginning of the 2nd quarter Denver had a 2nd and 9 at their own 18. On that play, Aqib Talib gets hurt. From then on, Denver scores on every single possession (except when they took knees at the end of the game) and Demaryius Thomas goes wild. It is entirely possible that Sherman’s sheer presence can affect Peyton Manning.
It seems like the more you get familiar with Denver’s offense the better you are against it. Denver’s offense vs teams not in their division scores 41 points per game. Denver’s offense vs teams in their division = 29.28 ppg. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, Seattle hasn’t faced Denver’s offense during the Peyton Manning Era (except for this year’s preseason game in which Seattle won 40-10).
Seattle leads the NFL in turnover margin at +20. Denver has a turnover margin of exactly 0.
Denver has the #1 offense in the league. In the history of the Super Bowl, #1 offenses are 10-8 outright in the big game.
Seattle has the #1 defense in the league. In the history of the Super Bowl, #1 defenses are 12-3 outright in the big game.
The so-called “Psychic Ape” known for picking the Super Bowl correctly 6 straight years has picked the Seattle Seahawks to win.
The official Madden 25 simulators used to predict the Super Bowl correctly 8 of the last 10 times has picked Denver to win 31-28 in overtime.
As far as Over/Under goes
Line set at O/U 48.5
7 of Denver’s last 10 games have gone UNDER the total (and 5 straight UNDER).
Seattle’s games have gone UNDER in their last 7.
In the previous 46 Super Bowls (no total for Super Bowl I), OVER has won 23 times and UNDER has won 23 times.
Denver’s games vs non-divisional opponents have gone OVER 15 times, UNDER 2 times and PUSHED 2 times in their last 19 games. The last 2 games in this situation have gone under BUT one of those games was a Denver 37-13 win when the total was set at 53 points (3 points off) and the 2nd under was vs New England who they played twice (essentially a division game).
In 64 games this year between teams in the opposing conferences (AFC vs NFC like the Super Bowl always is) OVER has won 50 times and UNDER has won 14 times (OVER 78%), as teams have trouble stopping teams that they are unfamiliar with.
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