The Western Embargo

The Iraqi chemical warfare production program will be slowed but not stopped by the recent US decision to place precursor chemicals on the embargoed list and to convince Western suppliers to stop aiding the program. We believe the Iraqi program is so far advanced that, barring a successful airstrike on the Samarra facility, Iraq probably will have a significant stockpile of mustard and nerve agents by late 1985. [redacted]

Many West Europeans countries have also instituted similar embargoes. Demarches to West Germany to [redacted] participation in the Iraqi chemical warfare program have produced only mixed results. We believe [redacted] nearly finished with its involvement [redacted remainder of paragraph]

Although the international embargo has probably made it difficult, Iraq continues to obtain the necessary precursor chemicals, either directly or indirectly, by circumventing the embargo. [redacted remained of paragraph]

Many different techniques have been used to circumvent the embargo. For example, a US company attempted to ship some of the precursor chemicals to Iraq, but US Customs agents stopped the shipment because of the embargo. [redacted remainder of paragraph]

[redacted paragraph]

To mitigate negative effects on the CW program, in the event that Iraq cannot obtain traditional precursor chemicals in the future, research elements have begun to explore nontraditional methods of producing agents. Iraq has ordered pesticides and nonembargoed chemicals similar in structure to chemical warfare agents to determine if they could be converted to such agents. Researching alternative methods of producing chemical warfare agents indicates Iraq’s determination to continue such production. If the embargo is effective and its research efforts fail, Iraq could turn to the USSR as a last resort. [redacted]