Possible Future Targets for Iraqi Chemical Weapons

We are unaware of Iraqi plans to employ chemical weapons after the current conflict is over. Nonetheless, there are certain observations that can be made on probably future targets for Iraqi chemical weapons based on their use in the Iran-Iraq war:

- Iraq will use chemical weapons against any invader.
- Iraq will be restrained in using chemical weapons outside its border, particularly against Israel. [redacted]

The Iraqis have been careful to use chemical weapons during the war only when the Iranians have actually pushed across the border into Iraq or severely threatened the Iraqi defenses. With only one exception, all the known uses of lethal chemical agents have occurred against Iranian troops actually on Iraqi territory [1]. At least one senior Iraqi military officer has publicly argued that Baghdad is justified in using any weapons on its own territory to repel an invader. [redacted]

This pattern suggests that Iraq will make widespread use of chemical agents against any renewed Iranian invasion. We believe Iraq will be restrained, however, in using chemical weapons outside its borders, particularly against states such as Israel or Syria, which have chemical weapons stockpiles of their own. Iraq is not similarly restrained in using chemical weapons against Iran because the Iranians, despite a burgeoning chemical warfare effort, are as yet unable to retaliate in kind. [redacted]

We do not have any current reliable evidence that Iraq plans to supply chemical weapons to other Arab states or to terrorist groups, [redacted chunk of paragraph] Chemical weapons are a major new addition to the Iraqi inventory, and we believe Baghdad views these weapons as an important tactical advantage. Their use probably requires direct approval from Iraqi President Saddam Husayn. We believe Iraq also would be reluctant to provide chemical weapons to any other Middle Eastern state that might someday become a military opponent. Iraq, however, probably would be willing to provide some details on manufacturing processes and possibly samples to friendly states that have supported it during the war, such as Jordan, Egypt, or, possibly, Saudi Arabia. However, we view it unlikely that Jordan or Saudi Arabia would seek such weapons. [redacted]

[1] In March of this year the Iraqis also used these weapons against Iranian staging areas and troop concentrations inside Iran near the Iraqi border which were supporting a major Iranian thrust inside Iraq. [redacted]